Thursday, May 21, 2009
Back to the future...Mr. Nardelli is gone and the former head of Duracell is now Chairman of Chrysler.
Most of us forget that the electric car played a large role early in automotive history, until petroleum took over. We're seeing a resurgence in electric and hybrids but the technology is still struggling to become affordable. And, unless most Americans want to make major economic and lifestyle changes, pure electrics have a long way to go.
Back in 1995-6 we wrote a paper on the impact of limited range. Conclusion? Pure ZEV (zero emission vehicle) needed a range of 100+ miles to gain a penetration of over 5 to 10%.
When we did a price sensitivity analysis, we felt that if gasoline went over $4/gallon that people would look for alternatives...mmm. We were surprisingly accurate, 13-14 years ago!